They used to call September “the feeding frenzy.”
This year? It’s practically nap time for college-basketball recruiters, and the silence is deafening. But here’s where it gets controversial…
Picture the University of Illinois on a postcard-perfect Saturday: cloudless skies, mid-70s breeze, and the nation’s No. 1 football powerhouse, Ohio State, rolling into town. Normally, Illini basketball coach Brad Underwood would have ordered a parade of high-school phenoms to soak in the chaos, the sold-out roar, the “we’re-a-big-deal” vibes. Five weeks to the early signing period? Every minute matters—well, used to matter.
Instead, Underwood is spending exactly zero recruiting dollars this weekend. A couple of in-state kids might drop by on their own gas money; no chartered jets, no hotel blocks, no catered barbecue. “I’m not lighting cash on fire for a guessing game,” he told ESPN. Translation: the playbook has been shredded.
Welcome to fall 2025, when roster-building feels like assembling IKEA furniture in the dark.
Why the whiplash?
- Coaches are drunk on the transfer portal’s instant gratification. Why chase a raw 17-year-old when a proven 22-year-old is one text away?
- The best high-schoolers are holding out for bigger NIL offers that (they hope) blossom next spring.
- And—here’s the part most people miss—the NCAA might drop a rule that reshapes eligibility itself.
Enter the so-called “5-in-5” proposal: five calendar years of eligibility for every athlete, no redshirt red tape, no waiver circus, no lawyers arguing over paper cuts. On paper it’s elegant; in practice it’s Pandora’s box. No one knows if it passes, when it passes, or how retroactive it will be. Sources tell ESPN it definitely won’t touch the current academic year, yet the suits in Indianapolis haven’t bothered to publish a memo. Coaches are left stalking message boards for rumors.
If 5-in-5 hits, suddenly every college senior can legally stick around for another season. Do the math: if 200-plus seniors nationwide opt-in, that’s roughly three freshman scholarships vaporized per power-conference program. Do Illinois need a five-man reload, or just a grad-transfer sniper and a pat on the back? They literally cannot answer. They already have two high-school pledges locked in—maybe that’s plenty, maybe that’s two too many. Underwood, five NCAA tournaments in a row and counting, shrugs: “We’re building sandcastles in a hurricane.”
The uncertainty ricochets both ways. Players can’t project playing time, so they wait. Families can’t project roster math, so they wait. Agents (yes, even in high school) preach patience: “Why ink in November when March money might double?” The result: only 16 of ESPN’s top 50 prospects, and a measly three of the top 15, have signed. Historically, that number would hover near 80% by mid-October.
Underwood isn’t mad at the rule—he’s actually a fan if it kills the waiver circus. And he’s no fogey pining for peach-basket nostalgia. “Stop whining,” he barks at peers. “The talent pool has never been deeper; the game is a ticking powder keg of fun.” He just wants lights flipped on so he can pick a lane.
So what happens next?
Imagine April: selection Sunday ends, the nets are cut down—and then the Wild-West transfer portal opens for 45 soul-crushing days. Coaches expect 1,000-plus names to flood the marketplace, grades and grad years all over the map. Scholarships will appear and disappear faster than Instagram stories. “Total chaos,” Underwood laughs, “but at least it’s chaos we can finally see.”
And here’s the twist most fans haven’t considered:
High-school kids could weaponize mid-majors. Why ride the bench at Kentucky when you can average 15 points at Toledo, trend on SportsCenter, and still transfer up in 2026? “Go build your brand,” Underwood tells prospects eyeing the Buffalo or Santa Clara route. Some scouts will argue that’s career suicide; others call it genius hedge-fund thinking. Agree or disagree—drop your hot take below.
So on a day that should have been a nonstop parade of 17-year-olds pretending to care about college fight songs, Underwood plans to kick back, watch Illini football, and maybe scout the concession lines for future walk-ons. “Used to be hair-on-fire season,” he grins. “Now it’s Netflix-and-wait.”
But spring’s reckoning is coming. And when it hits, every coach, recruit, and fan will be forced to pick a side: High-school loyalty or portal immediacy? Stable depth charts or perpetual churn? Mid-major launching pad or power-league gamble?
Question for the comment section: If you were a top-80 recruit, would you sign early and lock certainty, or gamble on a potentially bigger bag in April—knowing roster spots could evaporate overnight? Let the debate begin…
